at 260 Park Avenue South 2006 = 2009

up, then down (probably not flat)
The Manhattan loft #4-I at 260 Park Avenue South sold in March $2,000 lower than these sellers paid in July 2006.

Had they been marking to market all along (tracking their real estate investment), they would undoubtedly have been pleased for a while after July 2006, then perhaps concerned as they started to think about selling in 2008. By the time they came to market in October 2008 at $1.795mm they were probably a little worried about getting back the $1.577mm they paid 2+ years earlier. As they should have been….

It took The Market a while to persuade these sellers that $1.795mm was not where the buyers are, but when they adjusted in January to $1.65mm they had a contract by the end of the month. 60 days later, they had their money almost back (clearing price = $1.575mm), with no need to wonder about paying capital gains taxes but some peace of mind. Hope they are happy, wherever they went.

This "1,328 sq ft" loft presumably has the standard deluxe finishes that were original to the conversion when the residential conversion of three adjoining buildings was completed in early 2006. The original buyer closed in March 2006, then acted like a motivated flipper: on the market with a few weeks (at $1.595mm), then dropped the price without a deal after another 3 weeks (to $1.55mm), then dropped again after not getting a deal in another 3 weeks (to $1.5mm). That flurry generated the deal with the to-be-sellers-in-2009 people — apparently after a bidding war, as the clearing price of $1.577mm in July 2006 exceeded the last two asking prices for the loft.

The finishes and amenities at 260 Park Avenue South — and its success — upped the ante for the neighborhood, leading (inevitably) to 240 Park Avenue South, one block down and one step up in amenities and finishes (and one irritating soundtrack on that building’s marketing website). The current inventory of 260 PAS (per StreetEasy, here ) has an average price per foot of $1,445/ft; the new Gwathmey Siegel glass-and-rounded-corners building at 240 PAS has average asking prices for its inventory of $1,782/ft (again, StreetEasy ).

So goes the arms’ race.

yes, The Market has many data points
When Curbed.com linked to two recent Manhattan Loft Guy posts this week (thx, Lock + crew!) about sales 25% off prior sales in two different loft buildings, there was a little bit of commentary there along the lines of "d’oh — everything is off 25%, so this is not news".

It is rather pointless to get into an extended discussion on Curbed (perhaps that will change with the new no-anonymous-guests-all-must-register policy), though I hope it would be obvious that The Market is the sum of transactions, not all of which will trend in the same direction or in the same degree at any given point. Hence, I find it interesting to see what has actually sold in a given building, compared to what has previously actually sold.

Then, instead of saying "the whole market is down 25%" (compared to when?), I can say that this building appears to have lost X% of value since Y date, which helps to estimate present value of a unit in the same building. Works for me. I assume it works for actual buyers and actual sellers who are only interested in specific lofts in specific buildings, rather than in The (overall) Market. YMMV