risk, revisited / I am still a coward, but the 'brave' did not sell (yet)

checking back on the Spring
I recently had a conversation with a former shareholder in one of the Manhattan loft buildings that I visited in my March 25 lengthy rumination, am I a coward? assessing + bearing risk in a risky world, as she was curious about how her former neighbor’s loft was (was not) selling. So I went back to look at the listing history of the three lofts I used as the specific scenarios that generated this conclusion:
 

bravery is not rewarded
None of the three lofts has sold, but each has reacted to The Market a little differently.

One took one (very mild) shot at a price drop, reducing the asking price by 3% after 2 months. It went off the market "temporarily" a few weeks later. Perhaps it will come back after Labor Day. My guess is that it won’t be back any time soon, or (if it does come back) that it will come back at a much sharper discount. This seller does not look like someone who really wants to sell.

That one appears to fit this profile, as they have made no serious effort to ‘catch up to the active market’:

The second one has tried, and tried, and tried. In fact, that one nearly fits one projection I offered on March 25:

That one started a bit under $2mm and dropped the price 3 times, changing the second digit each time. Problem (for them) is that they have dropped 20%+ and they have a ‘tired’ listing (about half-way to a birthday, so far). They may yet be willing to negotiate to a deal, but they have yet to attract a serious bidder. That female dog — Hindsight, here, Hindsight — is barking that if they had started in February where they are now they would probably have struck a deal long since.

The third has taken yet another tack, sort of / kind of midway between the other two. That one has dropped twice, but mildly (about 7%, total), in nearly 6 months, with no price change in about 2 months. Manifestly, they have not found the part of The Market where the buyers are (i.e., they have not been able [willing?] to ‘catch up to the active market’).

These sellers have seriously upgraded the loft since they bought it some years ago. Perhaps they are overmuch in love with their renovation, fitting this profile in my March 25 rumination:

Their problem — to date — is that no one else provably loves their loft as much as they do. Thus, no one has bought it out from under them. Even at the current price (down 7% in nearly 6 months) no one is likely to. Perhaps they plan to drop again after Labor Day, in a more significant way. If they really want to sell (like the second loft mentioned, but unlike the first), I can only hope that my assumption is correct that they have fully understood what they have been doing here:

My guess is that they have gotten similar advice from their agent that the second loft owners got, but have been too stubborn to take it (so far). Absent a more aggressive price, I see this one as lingering on The Market until the listing expires.

more brave than I
In the first case, the more-brave-than-I agent made a 2-month investment of time and effort. In the second case, the more-brave-than-I agent had a seller with a Plan B, but has invested a lot with no return (yet). In the third case, the more-brave-than-I agent has (perhaps) been sucked into a great deal of effort and no reasonable expectation of making a sale until (unless) the sellers change their approach.

To repeat (again!):

I just hope the sellers understood what they were doing, way back when they started these marketing campaigns.

COUNTDOWN: 10 … 9 … 8 … 7 … 6 … 5 [oops] … 4 … 3 … 2 … 1 …

© Sandy Mattingly 2009