real nuggets as The Miller counts Manhattan lofts in 4Q report

consistent numbers + analysis … what a concept!

Yesterday I hit the Halstead 4Q08 report (insofar as it addressed Manhattan lofts; i.e., not so much: nuggets from Q4 market reports / Halstead dribs + drabs). Short story: apart from the data point of $1,181/ft as the average for Manhattan loft in their (quantity unknown) sample, the data was (still shameless here) all over the map (not in a good way) and "a mess". Any analysis was simply missing. In contrast, the Miller Samuel 4Q08 market report (pdf, here; the Manhattan loft info is on p4 of 4) is much more informative because it has more numbers and because there is a cogent analysis.

late night TV pitching

The Miller has the average price per foot for a Manhattan loft in the quarter at $1,268/ft, off slightly from the Third Quarter ($1,278) and off just a bit more off the prior year’s 4Q ($1,290/ft). But wait … there’s more: the 156 Manhattan loft sales in 4Q08 were down 30% quarter-over-quarter, but up 44% from 4Q07. Still more!! Days on market (The Miller counts from last list price) were 160 4Q08, up dramatically from both the prior quarter (130) and the prior year’s quarter (141). But wait … there’s still more!! Loft inventory 4Q08 of 768 (however he counts it) is down 16% from the prior quarter and 11% from the prior year’s quarter.

In addition to all the good numbers presented in a consistent format, The Miller provides context for this market segment, noting that the reported average and median sales prices for Manhattan lofts were skewed up because the average size loft sold increased 17% year-over-year, and that new development inventory was proportionately greater in 4Q08 than 4Q07 (28.7% vs. 21.8%). As usual, I highly recommend the Miller Samuel report as the best quick take on the Manhattan market overall, and on the loft segment.

key numbers

Key numbers for me are Manhattan loft transaction volume (yes, there is a market, still) and days on market (but The Market is much slower). Consistent with the Manhattan coop and condo market as a whole, loft closings were at an increasing discount from last asking prices, about which The Miller said (on p2 of 4, about the overall market; my bold): the "large spread between the average listing price and the contract price is evidence of how sellers continue to be ‘behind the market decline’. The same pattern was seen in days on market …". It is not so much  that I appreciate The Miller because he makes comments of great insight; it is that — in contrast to other market reports — there is any insight. Compared to Miller Samuel, the other reports tend to be data dumps accompanied by backwards ‘analysis’.

dribbling on Halstead’s dribs + drabs

Among The Miller’s comments is one that is (a) obvious, but (b) useful context for one of my beefs from yesterday about the Halstead report on the Manhattan loft market. Of course, I still don’t know whether Halstead thinks there were 156 or so lofts sold last quarter (as The Miller reports), but that (low) number suggests why slicing and dicing the loft data into four ‘neighborhoods’ (as Halstead does) is pretty pointless. The Miller noted that "[b]ecause of the smaller market segment, the loft market sales activity and listing inventory tend to be more volatile". My take-away is that if you then take this small segment and break it into four smaller segments, volatility increases and utility decreases. As I said yesterday, meh….

I still need to post about Corcoran’s loft numbers, then try to take an overview of the 3 quarterly reports that (only theoretically) cover the same ‘public’ data.

© Sandy Mattingly 2009