ending up where they started / $4mm closing at 99 Jane

head scratching in a thin market
The Market just proved that the Manhattan loft #10A at 99 Jane Street is worth $4mm, as that is the clearing price just now publicly available from the May 30 closing. That strikes me as at least a bit odd, as this loft started to market a year ago at that exact price but did not find a contract until April 25, 2009 — after changing firms (once) and prices (twice; both above $4mm). You’d think (at least, Manhattan Loft Guy’d think) that with someone willing to pay $4mm in April 2009, either that someone or a different someone would have been wiling to pay $4mm earlier, and would have persevered through higher asking prices of $4.495mm and $4.3mm. Perhaps another example of The Market being rather inefficient….

ooh-la-la views
This "1,920 sq ft" high-floor loft has a long wall of windows west (with "panoramic river and city views" and "streaming sunlight and magical sunsets") and a south-facing terrace. The building is only ten years old, so I take the description of "pristine" condition as being original-but-luxe. The plus factor for this loft is the view outside those windows (secondarily, the 10 x 35 ft terrace). So why didn’t it sell last year for this year’s price?

dangerous, but fun, speculation
The history of a neighbor suggests (only a theory here) that the June 2008 $4mm seller stiffened, and would not have accepted only $4mm last year. The hard evidence for this supposition is that they raised the price in July 2008 to $4.495mm. The intriguing fact here is that the neighbor in #9C rocketed through The Market last June at that same $4.495mm (on the market June 6, 2008; in contract June 20, 2008; cleared on July 10, 2008 — I said rocketed through The Market — at full ask).

In comparison, #10A came to market the day before #9C last June, and it is unlikely to be a coincidence that the #10C sellers raised the price to exactly #9C’s clearing price 4 days after #9C closed. In an efficient market, #10A figured to command a similar value to #9C, off-setting the larger terrace of #9C (821 sq ft) and possibly higher level of finishes against the river views of #10A. This was not an unreasonable view in July 2008. Except that The Market, even then, had changed and was decidedly more thin than it had been.

My supposition is that the #10A sellers were swayed by the #9C sale and stiffened their resolve enough to prevent a sale at their original asking price of $4mm. Alternatively, there was just one buyer for 99 Jane Street lofts in the $4mm to $5mm range last Summer, and #9C found that buyer.

Fascinating, no? If only as an illustration of how The Market can work, even if not precisely descriptive of the #10A sellers state of mind.

One wonders whether it was the sellers or the agent who decided in July 2008 that #10A was worth more than the original $4mm ask. One wonders about the conversations in which the former agents were not given an extended listing when the listing expired in December at $4.495mm, and how the new asking price in March 2009 of $4.3mm was divined with the new agents. One wonders how relieved the sellers were to end up in contract within 6 weeks of coming back to market (I assume, very relieved).

other neighborly ruminations
Turns out there were two $4mm+ buyers for 99 Jane Street, but maybe only one in 2008 and (so far) only one in 2009. This much I know: a thin market is a dangerous market for sellers.

All in all, I wonder how distracting it was for the #10A sellers (remember, they started as if they’d be happy at $4mm) to see what happened to #9C at $4.495mm. Sometimes neighborly competition gets in the way, even if it provides (what used to be considered) a wonderful + nearby + recent comp:

April 17, break away to win the neighborly competition / so many lofts, so many dollars … but no sales (yet)
January 7, are they fooling only each other? / 3 neighbors push, 1 smiles
December 12, more unintended consequences in petri dish of Tribeca neighbors
December 7, selling the neighbor’s loft / unintended consequences in a Tribeca petri dish?
November 30, neighborly competition leads to neighborly mistakes? the laboratory at 24 East 22 Street