penthouse loft at 363 Greenwich finally sells, only 29% above 2004

The Market contains a multitude of data points

One of the nice things about being with one of the largest residential real estate brokerages in Manhattan is that our listing system has some very rich past sales data about Manhattan lofts. Take, for example, the duplexed “3,006 sq ft” Manhattan loft #4A at 363 Greenwich Street along Restaurant Row in west central Tribeca. That StreetEasy page has the recent sale at $4.9mm, the July 2004 sale at $3.8mm, and the October 1999 sale at $1.28mm; our listing system reaches back into the mists, also having the September 1992 sale at $462,500. Unfortunately, I can’t be confident in the photos and floor plan associated with the 20th century sales in our system, so I can’t be sure when this loft was dramatically upgraded. The dollar sequence implies between 1999 and 2004, and certainly not after 2004.

Even assuming that the loft was in the same lovely condition in 2004 as in 2012 (as seems most likely), the recent premium of only 29% over almost 9 years seems unnaturally small. I don’t have the data set (and you don’t have te patience) for me to do a 2004-era comps analysis, but it seems obvious that either the 2004 clearing price was ‘too high’ or the 2013 ‘too low’. Given that the 2012 market was both deeper (in terms of number of transactions) and more transparent (in terms of availability of quality comp data) than the 2004 market, my hypothesis is that the 2004 sales price was ‘too high’. Certainly, the loft was professionally exposed to the busy 2012 buyer pool long enough for rational and informed price discovery to occur:
 

The Market emphatically refused this loft above $4,999,999. I don’t track downtown Manhattan loft sales above that threshold in my Master List of Manhattan Lofts Sold Since November 2008, so I can’t easily count the number of sales above $5mm, but I think we can agree based on general news reports that that market niche was relatively robust in the last year. Hence, the refusal of The Market to go that extra digit in this case can be seen as intentional; possibly even rational. In other words, I have increased confidence in my hypothesis about $3.8mm in 2004 being ‘too high’.

what makes a loft “zen”?
Perhaps Curbed has already done a demonstration of the kinds of elements that cause real estate agents to babble that a space has “zen” qualities, but this broker babble makes a bold claim, through a neologism.

ZenSational in Tribeca … soaring ceilings and 2 amazing terraces with nothing but the sky above – loft like lower level with open renovated Chef’s kitchen, woodburning fireplace in living room with west facing windows, … master suite … achieves a totally spiritual quality, the ultimate in design for relaxation – the spa-like master bath has skylights which is a great feature ….

If “zen” means A Nice Place In Which To Relax, then “ZenSational” must mean A Really Nice Place In Which To Relax, or A Really Big Place In Which To Relax. (If you hang in the Twitterverse, you may have seen a weekend dialogue about this locution started by @TribecaCitizen, which I expanded to include other recent creative bizarre bits of babble, such as "5-sided hexagon" and "stand-up sleeping loft"; you must get on The Twitter if this snappy repartee tickles you.) Personally, I don’t see anything especially zen-like in this loft, unless it is the fact that the master bed is on a slightly raised platform. “Spa-like” I will grant for the master bath, based on the palette, materials, and sky light (streaming light is, indeed, “a great feature”), though the scale is hardly massive and I don’t see a deep soaking tub.

ballparking the outdoors

I did not mention (other than in the babbled excerpt) that loft #4A enjoys outdoor space (“amazing” terraces), “950 sq ft”. I will start with the idea that these spaces, directly accessible from either end of the upper level of the duplex, are worth 50% of the value of the interior space (as regular Manhattan Loft Guy readers know, that’s the upper end of the typical range, per The Miller). That yields an adjusted price per foot for loft #4A of $1,408/ft from the recent sale at $4.9mm, which is hardly out of line for lovely loft space in prime Tribeca (zen-like or not), especially in a condo with low monthly expenses.

That implied $1,409/ft compares nicely, in fact, with the last sale in the building. The “1,974 sq ft” loft #3A sold on July 13, 2012 at $2.525mm ($1,279/ft) after being “thoroughly (!) renovated”. I am willing to consider that spread of 10% between the smaller #3A 10 months ago and the larger #4A last month as within the range of market noise for an increasingly squeezed buyer pool, especially with the relative scarcity of quality outdoor space in Tribeca of this scale.
 

My bottom line: the 2004 sellers should be feeling a certain euphoria, beyond a zen-like satisfaction, about recent developments. The recent seller may have experienced a certain level of stress. Such is life.
 

Namaste.
 

© Sandy Mattingly 2013