why did Chelsea Mercantile loft sell within 3% of The Peak?

Field of Dreams pricing, maybe
When the Manhattan loft #15-I at 252 Seventh Avenue in the Manhattan Loft Guy fave Chelsea Mercantile sold on June 9 at $3.65mm it wasn’t a man-bites-dog story like my July 5, man bites dog! 49 East 21 Street loft sells 3.6% above Peak, but it might be a man-barks-at-dog story, as the last time it sold was at The Peak, on January 7, 2008, for $3.75mm. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s (only!) a 2.67% drop from peak to now.

I found some new bathroom fixtures between the January 2008 and recent sales at #4A at 49 East 21 Street but here there are no differences in condition apparent in the broker babble, the floor plans or the photos. Indeed, what was then a “sophisticated renovation” is now a (you’ll be disappointed …) “sophisticated renovation”. (Again, StreetEasy lacks the listing associated with the January 7, 2008 deed, but trust me that the inter-firm data-base shows a very brief and very successful public marketing campaign.)

Loft #15-I is said to be “2,202 sq ft” of (of course) a “sophisticated renovation” with an ideal corner footprint with 2 bedrooms and 3 baths, and “fourteen huge” windows both north and east. The recent reward was $1,658/ft, just a tad off the January 2008 valuation of $1,703/ft.

The #15-I valuation compares very favorably to the last three other large high-floor (non-penthouse) sales in The Merc:

• #14D May 24 “2,065 sq ft” $1,598/ft
• #16H April 28 “1,631 sq ft” $1,379/ft
• #16M Aug 31, 2010 “2,236 sq ft” $1,565/ft

What accounts for the success of #15-I? It looks like a successfully stubborn seller: it came to market on November 16 at $3.95mm, a manifestly aggressive price (a 5% premium to The Peak sale of #15-I and a 6.6% premium to the then-recent sale of #16M, on a price-per-foot basis). But there was no deal for 5 months (until April 21, per our data-base), and no price drop. Seller aimed quite high, and got high.

was prior sale below market?
The current value of $1,658/ft for #15-I is clearly a strong value compared to past sales of similar high-floor units. But I wondered if the peak-to-now comparison might be skewed if the January 2008 sale of #15-I at $1,703/ft might have been below market. I should not have worried, as none of the other sales in the first quarter of 2008 approached the #15-I value:

• Penthouse Z closed the same day as #15-I (but in a private transaction) at $3.2mm for “2,087 sq ft”, or $1,533/ft
• #8M closed on January 30, 2008 at $1.15mm for (only) “971 sq ft”, or $1,184/ft
• #11U closed on February 19, 2008 at $2.5mm for “1,665 sq ft”, or $1,501/ft

#15-I was well-favored in the marketplace at The Peak. It is well-favored now. It has held its value very well (perhaps better than any other Manhattan loft with a pair of sales, at peak and now; note to self …).

© Sandy Mattingly 2011