Lion's Head loft sale hits the number at 26% over 2006

patience can be over-rated, Prudence
Sometimes The Market provides data that show Manhattan loft longitudinal trends in just a few data points. Note that the only meaningful difference between the sales histories of two lofts that sold recently at the Lion’s Head, 121 West 19 Street, is in the number of owners.

The “1,364 sq ft” Manhattan loft #9F closed on June 9 at the ask of $1.475mm, reflecting an appreciation of 26% since it was purchased from the sponsor in the frothy days five years ago, on June 12, 2006 at $1,170,987. The seller held for 60 months to get that 26% (gross) return. I hit the last loft to sell in this condo conversion in my June 1, flipped early, Lion’s Head loft later gains only 4.8% since 2006, a story that has a similar outline but one too many owners to permit everyone to smile.

That was the “1,134 sq ft” loft #8D, which showed an appreciation of 30% from the original sponsor sale ($1,008,067 on May 8, 2006) to selling on May 11 at $1.31mm. The sellers of #9F 4 weeks ago and of #8D 8 weeks ago were almost exactly equally patient, holding through the Peak and nuclear winter. But the #8D seller on May 11 had only owned the loft since July 26, 2006 (58 months), and that made all the difference, as that seller realized only 4.8% because the owner from May 8 to July 26, 2006 took the rest. Go to that post for the story of that loft, but keep in mind that difference.

hitting The Number
There’s an interesting quirk in the #9F listing history and a defect in how StreetEasy reflects it. First, #9F had an efficient marketing campaign, coming to market on February 24 and finding a contract by April 23 at the asking price of $1.475mm. The quirk is that it had been offered for sale at lower prices after Lehman and into the nuclear winter that fell over the overall Manhattan residential real estate market (at $1.45mm from November 28, 2008 into February 2009, then briefly for $1.275mm in March 2009), without selling.

The defect in StreetEasy’s history is that it shows “sold” as of March 23, 2009. There’s no sale price on StreetEasy because there was no sale. You can see this on StreetEasy by checking the deeds, as the June 12, 2006 buyer is the June 9, 2011 seller. That StreetEasy glitch aside, here is yet another example of lofts selling after the nuclear winter at prices not available during the big chill.

extravagant space or inefficient layout?
When I hit #8D, I noted that that “1,134 sq ft”

is a relatively large 1-bedroom layout for a 2006 new condo development. The floor plan supports only that single bedroom, as the only windows are on the south wall, a relatively long way from the common hallway.

With an eye on the then-in-contract #9F, I then observed that

The “F” line is over 1,300 sq ft, also with only 1-bedroom, one bath, no den or office.

Indeed, the #9F footprint only works as a pure 1-bedroom, with no nook, cranny or space of any kind to easily add functionality beyond the bedroom + kitchen + living room + bath + closets. One wonders if there is a point of diminishing returns with the ‘extra’ space. In the first offering, the large-but-smaller version of this layout in #8D sold for almost exactly the same as #9F on a price-per-foot basis ($853/ft vs. $858/ft) but there was a slight market preference for the smaller unit in the recent sales ($1,109/ft vs. $1,058/ft). This might be just noise in the data, or The Market may be saying that the ‘extra’ “230 sq ft” in the F line are not worth as much.

revisiting, again
Is there a more obvious literary locution for repeated posts about this condominium than “Lion’s Head revisited”? I can’t think of another loft building with a brand name that offers such a simple (cheap?) shot. Sad to say that I used it four years ago and again in January (ouch), so I won’t be able to use it again until I get more forgetful.

I am pretty sure I went nearly four years without hitting lofts at 121 West 19 Street, but have now hit them five times in 2011. I will try to avoid coming back until there is something different to say.

• Jan. 22, 2011 – Lion’s Head penthouse loft closes out of foreclosure (121 West 19 Street) with a 7-figure bank hit
• Jan. 28, 2011 – Lion’s Head loft foreclosure sale postscript: an unusual 4-letter word for b-u-y-e-r?
•  
• Jan. 31, 2011 – buying (+ overpaying) next door at 121 West 19 Street loft (Lion’s Head, revisited)
• Aug. 13, 2007 – Lions Head revisited / price history at 121 W 19 St
• Aug 12, 2007, gnashing of teeth in The Lions Head / jumpy prices + lien at 121 W 19 PH-E

© Sandy Mattingly 2011