Then vs. Now / Then wins, I think, even if this one is better

headwinds are strong
I worked with someone last year who was sufficiently interested in a particular loft in a prime Manhattan loft area that we saw it three times. That one was an interesting mix (to be charitable) of primitive elements and modern touches, with good light, interesting views and an excellent location.

The eight months it took to sell that Manhattan loft straddled the Lehman + AIG + miscellaneous crap = chaos turn of The Market, but it did sell — around 67% of the original asking price. Now an upstairs neighbor is pushing the envelope a bit, in newly offering for sale a loft with better finishes and more rooms in the exact same foot print (speaking of foot prints, there are also more steps involved), asking 25% more than the neighbor got in late 2008.

That is a tall order.

very recent, very nearby comp needs adjustment
Applying last year’s loft sale of a neighbor’s unit is more art than science when the conditions of the two lofts are as different as they appear to be with this pair. Give the new one a plus for a more efficient layout, much better kitchen and bath finishes, and greater utility, but strike as a negative a less convenient floor. (That’s art.)

Applying last year’s loft sale of a neighbor’s unit is more science than art when considering that The Market has eroded in the year since the other one was first launched and the months since the other one sold, but strays into art when considering how much erosion in this building in this prime Manhattan loft location. I’d tend to be conservative and think 10% off a late-2008 close, then make the more art-y adjustments based on a rough metric of the cost of upgrading the sold loft’s condition to compete evenly with the newly offered loft.

My adjustments net out to 85% to 90% of the current asking price. (Note to self: report back on how this turns out.) So that puts it in the too pushy …? side of that thread.

The interesting question is whether (if the Manhattan Loft Guy approach to pricing this loft is correct) asking 110% of the likely-market-value will generate enough offers to negotiate to the actual-market-value within a reasonable time frame. (A reasonable time frame here is one that does not eat more equity than is prudent, as the calendar pages fall off.)

The experienced and professional agent representing the new loft for sale is undoubtedly aware of all that I have laid out here, and has applied the best mix of art and science to apply last year’s sale of a lesser loft to this year’s campaign for a better loft. This situation is very similar to the three lofts newly for sale that I was very familiar with, which I addressed from the perspective of seller’s risk vs. agent’s risk on March 25 (asking, am I a coward? … ). So I assume the seller and agent are in agreement on the risks. I’d expect a price adjustment within 3 to 4 weeks if they read the risks the way I do.

to be continued… as usual …