are Manhattan prices off 15% since mid-Summer?

The Miller thinks so
Here’s the (slight mis-)quote in The Fed’s Beige Book from Jonathan Miller, as noted in his blog, Matrix, on Wednesday (my bold in the quote):
 

Here’s the NY District perspective from you know who.

A major residential appraisal firm reports substantial deterioration in New York City’s housing market over the past two months: prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume–much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers. Transaction activity has dropped off noticeably, and there has been a large increase in the number of listings. Some buyers that had signed contracts for units under construction earlier this year are having trouble getting financing at the contract price now that market values have dropped.

(I [The Miller, that is] actually said 15%, ranging from 10%-20%)

loft inventory, check
If we take "mid-Summer" to be the beginning of August, I counted 692 Manhattan lofts for sale as of August 4, just one more than my low count since May. (In fact, August inventory was remarkably stable, with weekly totals of 692, 699, 691, 692, 694.) Loft inventory began to climb at Labor Day and has climbed almost very week since then. Last week was a post-September low: 838 lofts for sale as of Sunday, November 30; the high count was 874 on November 9.

So, yes, "there has been a large increase in the number of [loft] listings."

loft transaction activity, check (but question)
It is always dangerous to play much with thin numbers, and the loft closing data I have been tracking is pretty thin (see below). But if we take "mid-Summer" to include July, the average weekly number of Manhattan loft closings, by month, by my count are:

So, yes, Manhattan loft "transaction activity has dropped off noticeably". Having said that, from November 2007 through April 2008, every month had average weekly transaction volume below 20 except for February at 25.5, so the use of loft sales data for only the last few months is a bit misleading. Again, given these small numbers, I am not prepared to (or qualified to) draw many firm conclusions — except to note that the data I have are in agreement with The Miller, insofar as they go.

really key loft number is MIA (as usual)
Of course, I don’t have data for actual sales prices to assess whether Manhattan lofts have fallen in the same range of 10% to 20% that The Miller estimates for The Market as a whole. (He sees contracts in real time across a broad swath of the market in his appraisal work.)

On the one hand, there is no reason to think that the loft segment has dramatically over-performed (or under-performed) against the general trends. On the other hand, I just have not (yet) seen convincing data in a world of pretty persuasive overall trneds and anecdotes.

© Sandy Mattingly 2008