7 Essex Street loft goes for Peak, wins!

nice when it works
Before the recent sale of the “1,584 sq ft” Manhattan loft #7A at 7 Essex Street at $1.6mm, the last loft in the building to sell at or above that price was way back at The Peak, when loft #3A sold at $1.6mm on January 16, 2008. In between, lofts #6B and #3B sold at $1.45mm and $1.5mm last August, and #8A (with a private terrace!) sold at $1.385mm in November 2009, so you could look at the #7A listing history (omitting one false start) as both aggressive and successful.

You could also look at the listing history as patient, of course, with but one price change to get a deal after 10 months at a mere 6% off the first asking price, and 4 months to contract at a tiny discount.

(Curiously, there were two higher sales about 2 quarters before The Peak in the overall Manhattan residential real estate market, at $1.661mm on July 12, 2007 and $1.7mm on July 11, 2007. But let’s not get too far afield. Too soon. Ahem.)

2003 was not very long ago, but the trees are growing
Loft #7A was marketed with broker babble about the finishes that sounds like the finishes in other past sales, and probably the same finishes as when the building was first marketed, in 2003.

Gourmet Kitchen with Marble Counter Tops, Custom Cabinetry by Valcucine and a compliment [sic] of high end appliances including a built in Miele Espresso Maker. … Ensuite Master Bath featuring Deep Soaking Tub and Double Vanity

One thing that distinguishes this loft from most others in the building is the view. From this height,

Oversized Windows offer[] Gorgeous Unobstructed Views over Seward Park to the East and Manhattan Bridge to the South.

Even one floor down, loft #6B boasted only of “tranquil tree-top views”. (Look at the main photo to see that the trees now top out halfway up those 6th floor windows; how long will it take them to reach the 7th floor?)

over-analyzing small data set
The full building history is difficult to reconcile here, as suggested in my opening paragraph. Trying to “explain” everything based on the past sales numbers is probably a fool’s errand. The top sales price should have been closer to The Peak than July 2007, but those two July 2007 sales remain the top two prices paid in the building, beating the single sale at The Peak by 4% and 6%. Worse, from the perspective of a rational market at least, is that the third highest price in the building was recorded way back in September 2006, when loft #6A sold for $1.659mm. (Note that the 6th floor then boasted not treetop views, but “STUNNING Park and City Views”.)

We have a small building (16 lofts) that was a new sort of development in a not (before then) a very loft-y Manhattan neighborhood, with a series of resales since the sponsor sold out in 2004. The highest resale prices were recorded between September 2006 and July 2007, with the only resale that coincided with The Peak in the overall Manhattan residential real estate market being 4% and 6% less than those record prices.

The two sales in 2009 were well enough into that year to have been post-thaw, but #PHC in August 2009 and #8A in November 2009 got hammered, with that penthouse loft selling for less than that seller had paid in 2005 and #8A getting 13% less than #7A just got, even with a “150 sq ft” private terrace. Is 13% off from post-Thaw to Current market broadly reflective of the overall market? Maybe. But this (somewhat selective, simplified) sequencing doesn’t line up with much that you know about the overall market:

(*I tracked those sales to #7B and #5A via Property Shark, see Title Documents and Ownership Summary)
(** #8A price is unadjusted for the 150 sq ft terrace)

Just a few things to note about how this sequence of free market values is not rational, before we drown in these numbers. Note that 2007 had both the two highest sales and the lowest, within 70 days. Note that two two sales at and nearly-at The Peak come in only fourth and sixth highest. Note that the most recent sale (tied at fourth highest) is an improbable 10% higher than the next-most-recent sale only 8 months earlier.

As I suggested in the sub-head, you can go crazy over-analyzing small data sets such as these 9 resales in a 16-unit building. Sometimes the numbers are just wrong, in the sense that they make no (overall market) sense. Willing buyers met willing sellers at those prices, but it is foolish to think that you can fit them all into a rational framework.

Did I mention that comping is hard?

a last gasp
With all of this activity over the last few years, it is rather surprising to me that I have not blogged about this building since my March 27, 2007,  gimme a B at 7 Essex / 7B is new, 6B and 8B might be going. Perhaps I looked at some of these individual sales and threw up my hands.

Perhaps I should have done that this time, instead of putting it aside mid-draft yesterday after way too much time. Discretion as the better part of valor, or fools & angels?

© Sandy Mattingly 2012