130 West 17 Street loft flies through market, beating (my) expectations

… and sometimes the bear gets you
Have I mentioned recently that comping is hard? Or that (prospective) valuations are matters of opinion? (As are, in fact, sale prices, but at least with those you have two people agree.) When my buyers were interested in the Manhattan loft #5S at 130 West 17 Street in October, I told them “dramatically over-priced (IMO)”. Turns out that someone (at least two someones) disagreed, as it went into contract within 6 weeks, closing on January 20 at $1,537,500, a mere 3.6% discount from ask. The only thing dramatic about this was how dramatically wrong I was.

(Although there is another way to look at it.)

how big is that loft?
As with too many lofts in coops, it is hard to know how big this sucker is. The broker babble is silent; our data-base has “1,300 sq ft”. The floor plan has an identical footprint to the #8S floor plan when #8S was billed at “1,200 sq ft” in the 2008 StreetEasy listing and in our data-base. When loft #6S sold in 2007, the floor plan in our data-base (not available on StreetEasy) might be just a tad bigger than #5S (the entry area is differently configured, so it is a little hard to tell) and the listing and our data-base both had it at “1,350 sq ft”.

Of course it doesn’t really matter exactly how big the loft is, as we can make adjustments for comping. (As long as the buyer’s furniture fits.)

You won’t see any chest-thumping in the #5S broker babble except about the bones (“original details. … high ceilings, plenty of sunlight, exposed brick and hardwood floors”), other than one bit of cook-dropping (“open chef’s kitchen”). Comparing the pictures and description when it sold last (in 2003; from our data-base) it looks and sounds exactly the same now, as then, with the same floor plan but different wall colors and furniture (note the claim as to size):

Cozy, charming, intimate are some of the qualities that immediately come to mind when describing this lovely home. Approximately 1300 square feet, this loft has 2 bedrooms plus a den/playroom, 2 baths, a renovated eat-in kitchen, great closet space and a washer & dryer. There are two exposures, south and east providing good light. The loft possesses high ceilings, original columns and oak floors.

There were these details about that renovated in a separate field: “Gaggenau Stove & Dishwasher, Boffi Stainless steel countertops,Customized Closets & Built-ins”. In other words, in 2011 loft #5S was nicely done but with a no-longer-recent-renovation, and two sets of agents had avoided the temptation to use the “triple mint” or “no detail overlooked” or “magazine quality” bromides.

what was I thinking??
When I told my buyers in October that this loft was “dramatically over-priced (IMO)” at $1.595mm I focused on those two “S” sales above and a third non-sale. #8S has the same footprint as #5S, with an “updated” kitchen and “dazzling” light and sold at The Peak (March 5, 2008) above-ask at $1.36mm. #6S might be a little bigger than #5S or #8S. The StreetEasy babble ends mid-sentence, but here is how that description ends (from our data-base):

This loft was specially designed by architect/designer, Turner Brooks. With its custom made doors, built-in cabinetry, beautiful maple floors and raised kitchen and dining area with Empire State Bldg view, this 1300+ sq ft loft is truly, A One of a Kind.

In other words, it should have been of similar quality to #5S when it sold on May 17, 2007 at $1.25mm (like #8S, above ask).

Loft #3S failed to sell just after The Peak in 2008, asking $1.65mm, $1.495mm, $1.295mm and (for a few weeks after Lehman’s bankruptcy) $1.195mm. That one claimed to be “1,450 sq ft” but the footprint in our data-base looks a lot like the other “S” lofts discussed. That babble described a loft that was in at least as good condition as #5S, if not better:

full wall of customized closets. … stainless renovated chefs kitchen and an integrated high-end sound system, …oversized Jacuzzi tub and … stylishly renovated large windowed bathroom with black and white tile work, marble counters

Given where #8S had just closed when #3S came to market (and where #6S had closed 11 months earlier), you’d think that #3S could have sold off that $1.495mm ask or the $1.295mm ask between Memorial Day and Lehman day. But it didn’t.

The Market cannot be wrong
One pillar for understanding the residential real estate market in Manhattan (anywhere!) is that the clearing price is the market price, as the product of agreement between a willing seller and an informed buyer.

Tautology, but: #5S was worth $1,537,500 when it sold a few weeks ago. (Although there is another way to look at it.)

I could say that I cannot reconcile that clearing price with well-established building values. I could also say, as I did at the time, “dramatically over-priced (IMO)” at $1.595mm. I still like my reasoning, although I recognize that the sellers and the buyers disagreed with me. (Note to self: check with my buyers and see who they agree with…)

© Sandy Mattingly 2012