129 Duane Street loft sells above $2mm after not selling at Peak at $2.35mm

is this the price of overreaching?
The Conventional Wisdom is that a Manhattan loft that does not sell after being professionally exposed to The Market for ‘a long time’ has failed to sell because of price. This wisdom is not infallible, but it is useful. Keep that in mind, along with the generalization that The Market for residential real estate in Manhattan is down at least 10% since The Peak, when looking at this extended listing history for the Manhattan loft #4T at 129 Duane Street (one 8-day break omitted):

Note that the loft was exposed to The Market for nearly 14 months during the deepest and highest volume market in Manhattan residential real estate history, including 5 months at $2.35mm. Yet the eventual clearing price was only 13% below that last ask heading into The Peak. YMMV, but that strikes me as odd.

Apart from the ‘simple’ ‘explanation’ that some things about the Manhattan residential real estate market cannot be ‘explained’, what might account for this anomaly? My best guess is hardly a strong one … that this loft did not compete well with others because it had started so high (so wrong) and was too high for so long. When the 2007 market was well on its way to exceeding the previous high for Manhattan sales volume by 30%, #4T spent 5 months at $2.7mm or more.

Did The Market view this loft as a tired listing, as damaged goods? That would be one answer suggested by Conventional Wisdom for a (ahem) mature listing, especially in a market that was (for other sellers) fast-moving.

That’s the best I got.

The ask of $2.15mm 4 months ago did what asking prices are supposed to do: generate a bid leading to the best price available in the current market. What bothers me is that that asking price was only 8.5% higher than the unsuccessful-for-the-last-5-months-into-The-Peak $2.35mm.

Maybe this sequence is a hint that the current market is stronger (relative to The Peak) than I think. I doubt it, but maybe…. Otherwise, I am left with the unsatisfying response that any two data points are likely to deviate from overall market statistics based on hundreds (thousands!) of sales. Sigh….

© Sandy Mattingly 2011