it's the demand, stupid / Manhattan Q3 market numbers
not supply, but demand
I usually focus on the inventory number as a key number in any Manhattan real estate market reports, but the inventory numbers this quarter are overwhelmed in significance by the demand number — the raw number of times a willing seller found a willing buyer, regardless of price (though prices clearly are not coming down on any broad basis).
Check out the number of coop or condo sales in Manhattan by quarter, as reported by Miller Samuel.
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Q4 06
|
2,441
| ||
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Q3 07
|
3,499
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Q3 06
|
2,113
|
|
Q2 07
|
3,939
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Q2 06
|
1,934
|
|
Q1 07
|
3,474
|
Q1 06
|
2,005
|
I will do the math for you. For 2007 through September 30 there have been 10,912 sales, which is nearly 15% more sales than in the highest full year to date.
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1999
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9,522
|
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2002
|
9,509
|
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2000
|
9,184
|
|
2003
|
8,802
|
|
2004
|
8,653
|
|
2006
|
8,493
|
|
2001
|
8,198
|
|
2005
|
7,780
|
|
1998
|
7,646
|
I considered that the 2007 numbers are skewed for some reporting reasons, but cannot think of any reason why they would be. (According to a blog conversation I recall with Jonathan Miller, there was a reporting irregularity when the city started reporting closed coop sales on a real-time basis, but I recall him estimating that such an effect would be felt in the fourth quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of this year.)
Absent another explanation, the reason for the increase in transactions has to be the simple one — many more buyers than previously find Manhattan apartments desirable at the high prices that have been recorded.
I will leave it to some possible future post about why this is the case.
As always with any backward-looking analysis, the question what happens next? is both looming and unanswered. Yes, the liquidity crisis elephant is still in the room and may already be impacting Q4 transactions. No way to know now….
© Sandy Mattingly 2007
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